Economists agree: Trump, not Obama, gets credit for economy


#1

Who deserves credit for the booming economy? This is not a petty argument. How voters answer the question could well determine whether Democrats retake the House of Representatives come November.

Trump and Obama (and their admirers) are slugging it out, both claiming that it is their policies that have led to the ongoing economic expansion, steady job growth and higher stock prices.

Happily for President Trump, the pros agree with him. A recent survey of economists suggest it is President Trump, and not Obama, who should be taking a bow.

The Wall Street Journal asked 68 business, financial and academic economists who was responsible for the strengthening of the economy, and most “suggested Mr. Trump’s election deserves at least some credit” for the upturn.

A majority said the president had been “somewhat” or “strongly” positive for job creation, gross domestic product growth and the rising stock market.

The pros cite the White House’s push for lighter regulation and the recent tax bill as critical to a pro-growth environment; more than 90 percent of the group thought the tax bill would boost GDP expansion over the next two years.

A year ago in the same survey, economists awarded President Obama mixed grades. Most saw his policies as positive for financial stability, but neutral-to-negative for GDP growth and negative for long-term growth. By contrast, Trump was seen as neutral to positive for long-term gains.

Why would Trump rate higher than Obama with this group? Economists point to the upturn in business confidence that accompanied Trump’s election, and tie that to increasing business investment. Spending on capital goods accelerated sharply over the first three quarters of last year, growing at an annualized rate of 6.2 percent.

Such outlays will spur productivity gains and lead to wage hikes, creating a virtuous circle complete with rising consumer confidence and spending.

Unhappily Trump, voters have not yet caught up with the experts. Democrats have done an excellent job of trashing Trump’s policies, issuing hysterical alarms over the supposed dangers of deregulation (toxic water, foul air!) and vilifying the GOP tax bill.

Democrats are terrified that the tax cuts will be a pleasant surprise to those who believed House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) when she called the bill Armageddon, and when Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) declared it a “kick in the gut to the middle class.”

They are even more terrified of the bonuses and raises being handed out by employers large and small, who credit the tax bill for those unexpected benefits. Democrats are trying to convince voters that those $1,000 bonuses and pay hikes are “crumbs” as multi-millionaire Nancy Pelosi recently said.

Maybe $1,000 is “pathetic” to Pelosi, but for a great many Americans, it is a big and welcome windfall.

So far, Democrats are winning the messaging war, using President Trump’s unpopularity to sour Americans on everything the White House does.

In a recent Quinnipiac poll, a record 66 percent of those surveyed graded the economy as “excellent” or “good” but 49 percent of those surveyed credited Obama while only 40 percent named Trump.

That poll, though, seems biased. Only 23 percent of those questioned were Republicans, while 34 percent described themselves as Democrats, and 38 percent said they were Independents. It also asked the questions in a way that appeared likely to elicit an anti-Trump response.

As the months pass, it will be increasingly difficult for Democrats to separate rising wages and faster growth from the tax bill sponsored by Republicans and the rollback of regulations, which has encouraged an upturn in business investment.

Even the New York Times, no friend to President Trump, has described the “wave of optimism” sweeping over Americans business leaders, saying it is “beginning to translate into the sort of investment in new plants, equipment and factory upgrades that bolsters economic growth, spurs job creation — and may finally raise wages significantly.”

The Times ran the piece on New Year’s Day, pretty much guaranteeing it would attract few readers, but still.

More than two million workers have now received bonuses and or raises, with their bosses telling them the benefits are flowing from the GOP tax bill. That number will continue to grow as other companies are pressured into sharing the proceeds from lower taxes. This is a powerful and persuasive movement that is gaining momentum every day, which is probably why Democrats are so foolishly belittling the payouts.

A vast majority of Americans feel more optimistic about their prospects than they have in a decade. Will they really want to rock the boat come November and throw out the party at the helm? We shall see.


#2

There are things that average Americans care about and then there are the things that the media, politicians, celebrities, and their followers care about. The guy driving the FedEx truck or the garbage man cares about having more money in their pockets to do more for their families. They will vote accordingly.


#3

At least while campaigning, the trumpian base was concerned about America’s national Debt, as the clock continues spinning toward oblivian they suddenly and hypocritically don’t care anymore. Let’s see how much that GOP tax bill adds to the nd already heading toward 21 trillion.

http://www.usdebtclock.org


#4

I wouldn’t say that their (mine) #1 was debt… or even #2… People wanted illegals out and jobs. I don’t think you could expect this president to do all he has done and still fix the debt but… working out the real problems in military provisioning will take time. Welfare and kicking a few million non/low production illegals out of the US is a start. The when we have regulations back at a manageable level with people back at work, then we can have a run at entitlements… something no career politician wants to touch… But Trump will force the issue… I mean, its only the first year and even you have to admit most, facing the obstruction that he has, would have completely capitulated to the establishment months ago…

I do like that ‘already heading toward 21 trillion’ comment… it was almost that when Trump took office and its 600b over that now… long way to go to 21 trillion… well… as much as Obama added during his time in office…

Besides, if Trump tried to use his pen to cut government spending any more… democratic law suites would fly… you can only do so much in a room of irresponsible children and the Freedom Caucus is only a small part of the group…


#5

Sure, compare that to Obama’s first year, or the subsequent 7 years. You realize that Obama doubled the deficit from $10 trillions to $20 trillions in just 8 years, versus the 10 years projection from the nyt right?


#6

Yes, and if they’re Trump supporters, they might care about the effect on the national debt. At least they use to, shrug. Remember when the TIC was making all his promises??? Have you googled the national debt clock and seen how fast it’s racking up debt under the TIC?? Lol, he’s just a dreamer and a liar.

Last April, lunching amid construction debris at his new hotel five blocks from the White House, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump told the Washington Post he would get rid of the national debt “over a period of eight years.”


#7

Now the national debt is Trump’s fault? Holy shit you are delusional.


#8

Oh no, not at all, he inherited 20 trillion. He’s suppose to pay it off in his time in office. So far he’s been adding to it just like his predecessor which he accused. :joy::joy::joy:


#9

I would dare say that the vast majority of it is an increase in the debt service… Obama ran it up at almost no interest rates and Trump gets to pay it back a much higher rates…


#10

Kind of reminds you of Reid and pelosi who campaigned against the bushwhackers low debt of 5 trillion doesn’t it


#11

But in fairness, the TIC isn’t the only bone head to promise this.

https://thinkprogress.org/flashback-in-2001-address-bush-said-the-national-debt-would-be-paid-off-in-ten-years-33749e88c5c/

But then he too went on to double the national debt instead.


#12

“WHoa look at me im hyper-nonpartisan. Let me ignore democrat president and hammer republican ones tho”
-illiterate bernie bot


#13

Any guesses why Tim Cook didn’t invest in America when Barack was in office? A question Democrats should be asking themselves before next elections.

Breaking ground in Reno today with Gov. Sandoval and Mayor Schieve as part of our data center expansion plan, one of many Apple initiatives which will contribute $350 billion to the U.S. economy and create 20,000 new jobs over the next 5 years.


#14

Just like his bud Obama, only Obama’s double was twice the Bushwackers double.


#15

Yep, remember when the average Americans at Trump campaign rallies were shouting with glee over the TICS promise to pay off the national debt during his term in office?? I guess they don’t care anymore. Don’t google the national debt clock and watch it spin as it racks up more debt, you might be depressed.


#16

Well, without completely turning his back on all the world events that the US was entangled with before he took office and finishing the job of letting the military decay from attrition… he probebly was hamstrung on much immediate cutting in his first year and he did of course campaign on making the military strong.

The only other things directly in his control are his agencies… He is peddling as fast as he can, I think

Want real reduction in the federal debt you have to tackle entitlements… to do that you must have a strong economy if for nothing else but to get the glut of handicapped off of the disability rolls and back to work…

It’s hard to undue the damage done over the last 40 years in the first year… especially when not many people are predisposed to helping him and spend all of their free time finding things to talk about other than his actual accomplishments…


"We'll See"
#17

Trump hasn’t reduced taxation, he has simply moved the tax brackets around to favor richer people instead of poorer working class people under the idea that the wealth will trickle down. He’s increasing the size of an already bloated military and has increased drone terrorism in the Middle East by over 4 times as much.


#18

And it is trickling down, apple is moving more production to the US and multiple companies gave out large bonuses and specifically wrote its because of trump on the check.

And guess what has happened because of the military? ISIS has lost all of its strongholds and the only major destabilizing force in that region are the Syrian rebels who are also almost defeated. ISIS grew to power under Obama who refused to grow the military and effectively use it.


#19

ISIS was destroyed by the Kurds, Syrian, and Iraqi government, not the Americans


#20

You mean the groups we funded with that bloated military budget?