FX and Commodity Charts & Ideas


#1

This thread for those of us that trade forex and commodities. Charts, ideas and events you think might influence the markets. We are not teachers nor are we responsible for anyone losing money trading. Trading is like any other business – a lot of study time, a lot of patience and extreme discipline. As in any business endeavor – bout 10% make 80% of the money earned.


The Rabbit Hole
#2

I believe the H&S still valid. Will only be looking for shorts in immediate future - less something changes.


#3

Are you worried about the rumors of an October crash?


#4

No. I’m old enough to have seen dozens of doomsday predictions come and go. NYT predicted the night Trump was elected that it would destroy the market. How did that work out. Remember – the world would be upended with Y2K? :joy::rofl::joy:


#5

I hadn’t heard of a rumor is this the start of one ? :+1::wink:


#6

USDIndex, Weekly


#7

Couple trades today.


#8


#9

Well done! Now I can stop muddying the RH.

No. I am laughing about that old git Soros who took out a short against the S&P500, then martingaled it a few months later, and since then it has been very quiet. I guess we could see a reduction in sea-trafficking as a result! :smirk:

As for a crash, funny how many started in October … the thing which is rattling that old drum is the fact that the stock markets have run-up for a long time. The last time there was this long and strong a run-up was in the 20s. That is causing people who know nothing to tremble, but in fact there will not be a crash until all the dominoes have been assembled. At the moment there is no evidence of any instability which might start a landslide. The markets have been recently shaken out in 2008/9, and the run-up has been caused by the recovery process and all the Quantitative Easing employed by a number of Central Banks (not just the FED).

These days there is too much transparency of data, it will be impossible for cracks to be papered-over because of the computer analysis of the trading systems. Therefore it will take an unexpected vulnerability, such as that which caused the 2008 crash, to bring down the markets. Neither will it be instant, there will be rumbling sounds accompanied by platitudes from the FED and others. You will have to sniff the smoke, by the time you can see it it will be too late.


#10

Currently I am short UJ
It was a scalp entry but I might hold it and see…

edit: well, perhaps not this time

edit 2: I was stopped-out for marginal profit, and now the down-turn resumes it seems. Watch a bit more.

edit 3: good call, bad execution


#11

So how come none of you old boys told me about this place !! :grin:

You might find this interesting EX. Just happened so nice and fresh.
This is what I’m always watching for.


#12

How spooky is that Stu.

I bought this morning off my level at 113.619 and got out way too early missing most of the rise to 113.9 :rofl::rofl::rofl:

Pathetic number of pips but I was happy with myself to see and trade the opportunity…


#13

:+1:Regardless of how many pips you took mate the key to this style is identifying very low risk entries, like next to zero draw down and you did that. We never know if a level will hold and for how long, we think we can have an idea where it may go but it often has it’s own unique way of screwing people over. I use similar technique to get out of the trade as I used to get in. It’s all about feel and when I mentioned the metronome it was a joke but so close to reality in getting used to being in tune with the market you are watching. All sounds a bit hippy I know but the feel you develop when you are working on a micro level is priceless. With the bigger charts you just look and see that price moved from a to b but with micro you really get the nuts and bolts of how it moved. Which of course you can then apply to larger charts if you wish but when you start to realise that you can be done and dusted and out of harms way in short order, you tend to think “Why Bother”, of course it’s not for everyone and I fully support the thinking of it having to fit your temperament.


#14

Agreed and I think this is a way I really will enjoy trading as I pick up these levels a lot.

Another one I traded this morning 5 mins earlier than the U/J.
Bought off my yellow weekly support line and again got out way too early due to the price coming back for a retest of my 1.15099 level

.
The f*cker went straight up to my other weekly resistance level at 1.15608 without me :rofl::rofl:


#15

Ha ha and I should have said Sod’s Law and Murphy’s Law always present.
I will always take a great entry and quick TP over the unknown any day.

Once you up to speed you don’t care where it goes once you’re out. Never give it any head space, it will F*** you up. Once you have your bet size at a level that compensates you adequately, why worry. Just move on to the next. Once you start looking there are lots of opportunities every single day.


#16

Yep those laws have plagued me a lot and it feels like mostly in my trading !!!
Once I get comfortable I will get back to full lots again so I hear you on the compensation aspect.
I am just playing with micro lots at the minute to keep me focused :+1::+1:


#17

NOTE: EX, ALEX, STU, ROB, MYSELF AND OTHERS THAT WILL JOIN US HERE USE TO SHARE IDEAS AND CHARTS ON A FORUM (THAT SUCKED) A WHILE BACK. I TURNED MY TRADING BUSINESS FROM A MONEY LOSER TO A MONEY MAKER BECAUSE STUFX SHARED COUPLE IDEAS AND TIPS. PLEASE UNDERSTAND YOU CAN PROBABLY LEARN SOMETHING HERE BUT YOU GOTTA PUT IN THE HOURS OF STUDY, WORK AND OCCASIONAL AGONY TO LEARN TRADING IF YOU ARE SO INCLINED. WE ARE NOT TEACHERS AND SIMPLY DON’T HAVE TIME TO TEACH THE BASICS. A WEBSITE NAMED BABYPIPS.COM WILL GIVE YOU THE BASICS.

Trades from this morning.


#19

Sorry Stu… :thinking:


#20

Missed this a few minutes ago while I was replying to you Stu ! That will teach us to mock the afflicted :rofl::rofl::rofl:

1 pip drawdown if taken on the level !


#21

Unlucky mate there will be another shot coming your way soon.

So for you what does your level (1.29931) represent ?
Eg. A Fib, PP, OHLC, The sum of everything divided by Pi etc etc. I will then understand more how you apply it. You know mine all OHLC and mostly OC.