FX and Commodity Charts & Ideas


#182

Thanks Stu, with Chris Capre he posted his myfxbook trades on a live account for a year. What is missing from their teachings? Maybe nothing, maybe it’s just that I am looking for a system or a method (still, after all these years) that will work and my mindset is the problem. It’s probably the perfectionist in me not being totally satisfied with anything.

I saw that you got out of the AudUsd yesterday, but I’m only guessing how. There is a down channel that gets broken and turns into a counter-trend consolidation move around the place where you got out. Is that why you got out?

There is real power in your method. Here is the monthly usdjpy and I have marked why I have drawn the S/R line where I did.

Here is the hourly:

[Cannot show two pictures in one post]

I know you trade on a lower timeframe, but the hourly chart shows the picture the best.


#183

Sorry for double posting, here is the hourly.


#184

I was not conscious at 3am this morning, but if I had been and with fully functional brain (unlikely) there was this teaser…


#185

Thank you Mr.NFP

Snipped two small trades == 0.75% win


#186

Ok SM so myfxbook is as good as it gets to know if he is billy bullshitter or not. As for what’s missing, I don’t know ? It can be a very small part or nothing and yes it could be you, your own interpretation or trying to blend everything you have learned ?

This is not having a dig but an example of above. You have asked me about where I think something will bounce and about S&R and yet if you had read what I have written I don’t believe I have ever discussed my approach in a way that can be interpreted the way you have, to ask those questions. You see that ?

So there may well be power in Capre’s method too but your interpretation maybe not exactly how he sees things. There is real power in my approach but only if it can be interpreted how I see it.

With the above in mind your U/J charts do not really tell me much. I see a line that the hourly reacted to. What is it ? Why pick that line amongst others ? If you traded it did you get in on the line at first touch ? Did you wait and see reaction first ? Did you consider if it bombed through the line at what point do you pull the plug.

If you want to discuss, pick a chart now in advance, identify the level you are interested in and why. How you intend to enter, what your expectations are. Where you consider your risk to be.

You didn’t say but did you your AU trade go to your SL ?
My trade went the way it did because

  1. I had identified a level on the daily chart that I anticipated price would react to.
  2. I also recognised that there was potential for the hourly to pause there based on the
    preceding action. That is the extent of my expectation in the planning stage. As taking
    it up a level or 2 it is clear to see the monthly hadn’t had any retrace of note in 9
    months and that could end at any moment or indeed continue but the longer the elastic
    stretched…
  3. The approaching 1 min swings to that level were in line with what I like to see.
  4. Had identifed on couple time frames up from entry where potential stalls may be. 5
    min and 15 min.
  5. So in the trade and noted 10 mins before close of the hour and that this hour bar was
    already almost twice the coverage of preceding 3 bars, thoughts of exhaustion/pause
    at this stage and at the very least as always at least the expectation of a bounce on 1
    min chart.
  6. So nursing and watching the trade and having now been in the trade about an hour
    and fast approaching the dying minutes of the next hourly bar and also close to my
    pre- identified first hurdle. I make the decision to jump out as it was likely to bounce in
    that area at least a bit and as it hadn’t travelled too far best to take the loot and not
    risk giving the profit back. Again at this moment I’m thinking about the potential for
    monthly elastic to ping back on itself.

So that’s it.


#187

I want to find the guy who leaked that rumour about the ECB considering a new TLTRO program, and have him staked out and drawn.

Unless it was Draghi, and then I want all his family alongside him also!

edit: After some patience and gnashing of teeth I finished the day 6 pips ahead.
…but I still want that guy staked-out, whoever he is! :triumph:


#188

Busy getting couple houses ready so clients can enjoy thanksgiving in their new homes – didn’t get time to trade latter part of week – missed the move == scalpers delight! :slightly_smiling_face:

Following is home we finishing up for a old marine - retiring NY cop.


#189

Hi Stu,

Thanks for taking the time to write all of that. I appreciate it. I even donated to the site so that I can put two pictures in one post (I hope).

To answer your question, I left the UJ open and went to bed (Asian time) and my SL was hit. I was hoping for a long retrace.

I understand your explanation above and Exy directed me to your FF thread, which I read. With regards to point 4, how did you identify the stalling points on the 5 minute 15 minute charts? Is the same way that you looking for the ends of swings on the 1 minute chart.

You are right, I do have a tendency to look a different methods and then try to mish mash them together. I guess you are saying that this is the wrong thing to do and maybe I am where I am because I have not persevered with one method for long enough to make it work, who knows. You do pick up useful nuggets from each of the methods though.

I did not take the UJ trade, but I did look at it when I was looking at the way you trade. Here is the monthly chart which explains where the line came from:

Here we see that the price made a V shape. There must be a reason why the price stopped there and reverses. Even 13 years later, we can see that the price still respects this area. If we go to the one hour chart:

Edit: still only allowed one chart per post.

Recently, we had two instances where the price stopped dead and would have given you a massive risk reward if you could have predicted that the price wasn’t going to over shoot this S/R. Instantly my mindset wants me to go and put indicators and try methods of filtering those ‘not so perfect’ trades even though I know that this is not the way.

As you said, these are the taxi pick up points and we need to learn how to utilise these. Looking at the 1 minute for the most recent ‘not so perfect touch’ we see this:

Edit: still only allowed one chart per post.

This is the sort of market environment that would have killed me. We can still see that the monthly S/R that I chose was significant, but making the most of that and not getting stopped out multiple times in a market such as this is difficult for me.


#190


#191


#192

Something to consider UJ…

I will address some more points I think you need to look at again maybe tomorrow.
In the meantime like I have said think about your expectancy. Hunting 1 min swing or Monthly swing ? The considerations are exactly the same but for the monthly you may need to try multiple levels before something sticks.


#193

What I’m thinking going to happen this week. Two big events – midterms and FOMC meeting. I don’t think the polls showing some of thes races being tight are at all accurate. I think the repubs will pick up 2 - 5 seats in the senate while getting rid of two horrible rinos, corker and flake. I think the repubs will keep the house by a comfortable margin. Many of the repub house retirees were rinos so the president will end up with a much better congress to enact his agenda. The new senate will easily confirm new appointees - hopefully sessions being one of the firse. Looks like the mob invading our southern border is going to be completely repulsed. Lotsa barbed wire and soldiers with rifles gonna be present.

If the above happens, I expect a sharp increase in the dow. I also think if that happens, it is possible for the FOMC to increase the interest rate 25 basis points thereby laying off awhile. We will C.

We still have a perfect H&S EU pattern. I thought it would retrace more this past week. It is still showing weakness. This could be the week she breaks through support. If the FOMC is bullish, EU could drop sharply.

Week was bearish and friday bearish. Going to be a interesting week.

Won’t be posting for couple weeks for 2 reasons. Gonna be busy finishing up couple homes for the holidays. Also, “Stu’s levels” teachable and my “redneck ramrods” ain’t.

Y’all have a wonderful week and many green pips.


#194

I prefer a similar seat-of-the-pants approach and agree that Stu’s guidance has also been tremendously helpful. I find your posts useful, it would be a shame if you disappeared into the building trade. :smirk:


#195

And here is the future but been out all day but nice example if you are following along or better still if you had it marked up… @robgsxr (refer daily Break) you will find it.


#196

HaHa – ain’t going nowhere, EX. Be around. Keeping powder dry this week till returns start coming in tomorrow night. Only takes 16 full risk pips a week to meet my weekly profit projections. Trying to get them first thing most mornings. Schedule will lighten up second week Dec. I’ll try post ones that aren’t taken driving down the road.


#197

@robgsxr Daily break, open and close quite close together.


#198

Missed these, we have visitors this week so time is ltd.
I assume this e/u is from the Daily open and close of the 10th Oct ? Blue arrow on attached.


#199

:+1:Yes E/G not e/u. And hit last Open too.


#200

Apologies, yes e/g.
After your instruction, I saw a number of these doji dailies being reacted to in the past. I suspect from what you have said the monthly still holds most importance and hence I am currently setting a template with just monthly / weekly / daily doji type opens and closes on a few pairs.
I will have a seperate template for hi’s and lows on monthly and weekly and a single template for daily’s.
It’s taking time but a worthwhile endeavour :+1:


#201

Sarge would have been proud of this one, 11 pips
Had I hung-in there, it would have been 22 pips :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye: