FX and Commodity Charts & Ideas


#202

Rainy day here so home for FOMC. Yesterdays 12hr pin indicated weakness to me so I shorted last evening. Did something I rarely do – put tight trailing stop as didn’t want to lose many pips. Looks like I screwed up. Couple scalps earlier in week so probably done for week. Medium risk.


#203

And here is why I hate trading on Friday. First I jumped the gun too quickly because it appeared EU was reversing on support based on a bullish 2hr pin. If you look you will see I accidently hit the sell button when I meant to hit the buy button. I immediately killed the trade and entered the medium risk long position with a TP of 36.9 pips. Got stopped for a loss of 2.4% and it immediately turned around and headed back up. I done. Still a good week but coulda been better. C y’all next week – have yo’selves a great weekend!


#204

Hi Stu,

Thanks for your help. I stopped commenting because I didn’t want to seem like I was monopolising the thread.

Anyway, I have been working on this. You might criticise me for trying to blend ideas together, but your method of taking 1 minute trades works well with Chris Capre’s ideas. Chris would look at the market on higher timeframes and then place limit orders at levels after having predicted where the market would go. You are examining these areas on the 1 minute chart and catching movements. Hence, these ideas do not seem to contradict each other, but could reinforce each other.

You asked what length of time I wish to trade. I seem to get a lot of satisfaction with entering on the 1 min charts and then looking to the 4hour or daily to get out at a high probability area. In fact, I like the idea of limit trades because you get to minimise your risk.

What I have been doing is to go back through bounces off of monthly S/R and analyse them. I have been building slides like the one below to try and tie ideas together. What I have noticed from people who are successful traders, is that they can usually talk about the reasons for taking a trade for a full 5 to 10 minutes. This alone separates them from people who trade because the indicators said so, if you see what I mean. My point is that people who are successful aren’t successful by accident. They got there through taking the time to understand the market.

You might need to expand this to see it properly:


#205

I don’t think Jim will care how often you post SM. I’m not critical of blending ideas and taking bits and bobs that you think help but from your first post it appeared you had done that and yet still seem to be searching for the missing piece in your puzzle and noted you made reference to being a perfectionist, which obviously fuels your pursuit in searching for something which probably isn’t available.
You can blend my stuff with Capre etc if you find useful but I can only answer questions based on what I do.
You refer to limits for precise catch and riding on to a 4hr or daily level, I say best of luck with that. And I mean that in the nicest possible way.
For me every level I pick is a 1min level first and foremost with a potential to progress.
Hunting a daily swing could take several or more attempts and very frustrating if you want to avoid large drawdown, (Of course large draw down is different things to different people).

I still really don’t know how you currently trade and what I can do to help if I’m honest.
I did say pick a level you are looking at and maybe we can dig in to it a bit ?
Discussing N wave structure, false breaks etc or 5 to 10 mins on reasons for taking a trade is something I can’t do unfortunately.

Again understanding the market means different things to different people. I personally don’t understand it, I think many profess to but very few actually do. I’ve listened to guys crunching and quoting all manner of reasons why a particular instrument should do xy & z only for it to do ab&c. The few people I know who pull a few quid out of the market have recognised anomalies or recurring patterns with a hefty dose of probabilities and exploit them but none of it is perfect.

EDIT: remember this one

Looked real nice, half position 250+ pips up but got stopped at + 8 pips 3 days ago.


#206

This is exactly right. Nobody knows what the market is going to do. The best one can hope for is that the factors which one spots in the market behaviour persist long enough to complete a trade and take some cash.

With that, the rules of trading:

  1. If you don’t spend enough time planning the entry and exit points of a trade you will place stupid trades and lose money.
  2. Pay special attention to rule-1
  3. After placing a trade which does not perform to expectations either: close it as soon as it becomes apparent; or revisit rule-1 in order to decide what you will do next.
  4. After each focusing instance of the sometimes negative effects of rule-1, go and have a beer or walk the dog and figure out why you did not trade according to rule-1 .

The market is not aware of any aspirations in the trades you may place, only your broker really knows and some of those exploit traders who fail to observe rule-1. Unless you believe in the Devil, in which case (s)he knows exactly what is going on and moves the market to make sure that you lose as much as possible.

:japanese_ogre:


#207

You post all you wanna post. Ain’t none of us perfect – we all just wanna make some money. Different folks do it with varying degrees of complexity. I’m the simpleton of the bunch – and damn proud of it. Stu told me couple years ago to view the market as a ATM machine and FX was my key to it. Soon’s I got that idea firmly planted in my brain housing group, I started making money! :wink:


#208

EX – U a tru GU RU. I’ve read entire books that didn’t give as good information as in those 4 sentences!! :relaxed::sunglasses:


#209

cook


#210

Thank you. :hugs:

I confess that I am not strict enough with myself to avoid the stinking losers.
However now that I have realised the true nature of the market I just need to corral my demons!


#211

That is very interesting, thanks.

@Leatherneck Jim, it seems we both have the right approach since I found this hint on his home page: “Mark has always been a tape reader, which gives the feel of the current market condition.”

I went looking to see how long it took him to become profitable. Not found. However I know that it takes time and it appears that I should be further ahead than I am, but hey…

The data addict in me wants anything useful out of anything of substance. At $6 his book has to be worth a look, although I am nearly in Stu’s mindset in that I don’t need the distraction. Also … only available in Kindle version it seems. I wonder if there is an android App for kindle media…

https://www.markdcook.com/


#212

Agree Ex , only thing I would also say is that process (No.1) needs to be clear and not something that needs to be overthought. The more convoluted the parts of the decision process are, the more it appears to be a major stumbling block for many.


#213

#214

Oh crap I don’t think I will ever make it big then, as after all these years I haven’t even blown one account yet.

I obviously need to work harder at finding more losing trades… :laughing:


#215

There is an Android reader for kindle !!
I paid something like £4.50 and read it…

TBH the description of the market-crash process was interesting.

BUT the book was an interview in which MDC (Mark Cook) answered a bunch of questions. So if you are interested in reading about a successful trader…

After reading the book, which does not take that long, I went to look at the charts to see how accurate MDC has been. The SPX500 has exhibited a few healthy corrections since 2014. It kind-of plateau’d at 2100 … and then resumed the up trend. This year SPX500 has executed a rising flag with higher highs and higher lows, and again with corrections of 12%~14%.

HEY ! tradingview.com has the NYSE cumulative Tick … no values outside plus or minus 800

So it seems that a crash is not yet a certainty. However one must keep looking over one’s shoulder. :sunglasses:


#216

I’m curious, how much is enough money. Obviously it varies person to person somewhat but where is the limit you stop or is it just winning?

It’s not a criticism or judging but something I’m curious about. I know where I am and I have reached my comfort level and work part time 200-250 an hour for services and have investments, long term that continue to do quit well.


#217

I still really don’t know how you currently trade and what I can do to help if I’m honest.
I did say pick a level you are looking at and maybe we can dig in to it a bit ?

Maybe if I am honest, I don’t really know how I am trading at the moment.

Looking at the immediate levels, blue for monthly and red for weekly swings, we can get this sort of picture.

I will watch the price near the levels and see if we get a predictable reaction.

I have a question, before the price gets to a level, do you already have a bias in mind?


#218

I POSTED THIS AT FF SHORTLY AFTER TRUMP WAS NAMED OUR NEW PRESIDENT. COUPLE THINGS HAVE CHANGED – I ONLY TRADE EU AS THE VOLUME AND MARGIN REQUIREMENTS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. OANDA IS NOW MY BROKER – FXCM WAS DISQUALIFIED FROM DOING BUSINESS IN THE US. I HAD TO TAKE SEVERAL MONTHS OFF WHEN I WAS HELPING CARE FOR MY MOTHER. BASICALLY THOUGH THIS IS HOW I BUILT MY BUSINESS.


#219

Ok so you now have some levels, I don’t know exactly what they are but it will help you to label initially and use the most recent in terms of MWD levels if you have large price gaps you may need to look further back. I use Red Yearly,Black Monthly, Blue Weekly, White Daily . So if you look at your chart that I’ve drawn on typically if I want to catch an hourly swing I will look at places above and below current price, without bias. Your job is not to be biased but to look for places of value and opportunity. So on your hourly you will note there is space above that hasn’t been filled and previous broken structure that has not been revisited. You will note I did this with weekly charts couple weeks back or so. Same principle. Again look below price for a similar area, you may have to step up a time frame or so to identify an area. You will then note that you may have say 5 or six levels for example from prior MWand D levels. As price approaches you are now watching the 1minute for the factors that I mentioned in thread @FF. If conditions are met upon approach I take the level at that price or better if poss. It may work on first level hit, it may not but for each level there is the potential for a trade, it’s impossible to know which one will be the ONE, if any. Make no mistake this is labour intensive ! I rarely do this now but the process is the same. I just take a few 1 min swings and take the loot generally. Of course if you get nice tight entry and it makes like Linford Christie you might consider holding but that kind of consideration normally comes down to you and your risk appetite. So you see for me hunting weeky/ daily /hourly swing is all the same process and it all starts with a minimal expectation of at least a 1 minute swing and then only you can decide how much potential for growth your acorn has.
My advice differs greatly from most of what you will read at FF and text books etc and that is not to say I am right or indeed it is the only way but it is my way and therefore the only advice I can give safe in the knowledge that it has served me well. So before wanting to nail big swings get used to picking up multiple swings on the 1 min chart, this greatly helps you get used to the daily rhythm. Try and nail 4 out of 5 1min swings each day consistently and the rest will take care of itself.


#220

Early on when I first went into my first business I realized that money is one of the minor (though important) goals one needs to set. Setting goals that concentrate on ones performance has always been more important to me. For instance in the homebuilding business 1. developing a scheduling system that kept everything running smoothly 2. developing a quote and specification sheet so there were never any questions as to what the customer was getting. 3. STAYING ON BUDGET 4. minimum callbacks. 5. developing a successful referral system.

Accomplishing the above will guarantee a very good income.

I have set no limit on my FX business – just a orderly building of the business. My first goal was to take $500. out when the account hit $6500. and take a nice 2 day holiday. My second goal was to exceed my social security check monthly. Both goals have been met.


#221

Chart speaks for itself. Looks weak. Be bias towards shorts. Take them where I can find them.