FX and Commodity Charts & Ideas


#142

yeah you might want to consider taking the loot mate, negative swap over weekend.

I’m a bird in the hand trader or at least like to take half out.

Anyway good luck with it whatever you decide.


#143

Tough, Mate – next. Don’t think I will ever have the confidence to set a trade with sl and leave it. Gotta look at it. Ya micro surgery way I like it. Doomed to scalp rest of my life! :money_mouth_face:


#144

Sorry Ex had some visitors.
Golden ratio !
The attached snapshot shows the golden ratio’s I analysed for eur/usd (blue lines). Some from September and some from a couple of weeks ago. They are simply fib extensions applied to selected prominent swings.
They seem to be as accurate as any of my monthly/weekly support and resistance areas (looking at the touches in the yellow elipses). Used for targets or simply scalp off them.
I class them as magnets for price because as you can see the precision of the turn is almost like a switch from magnetic pull to magnetic repulsion :blush:

Now if only I can make sure I am in front of the computer when the f*ckers happen :rofl::rofl:


#145

Yep… always always NEXT ! It wasn’t full throttle, so no big deal, just trying to catch a cheap swing while in absentia. As for your doom, I can’t think of a better predicament to be in :wink: $$


#146

Some thoughts… most times the straight line passage between ranges gets filled in. You see it on all time frames and obviously happens sooner rather than later on smaller time frames. Even in micro land I still keep an eye on what has filled and what hasn’t further up the chain. You hear these phases get described as all sorts of things, popular is accumulation, mark up, mark down, distribution, liquidity gaps between range etc etc. Couple of charts to show what I’m talking about…
So this first weekly chart few years old now and had to drag it from elsewhere :face_vomiting: So with benefit of hindsight we now know that it continued sideways for some time before filling the space above.

.

This weekly chart to illustrate my point.

So now and again like on a Sunday morning I look at this stuff and draw a few boxes, to see what has filled and what hasn’t. I would not say this influences every trading decision but there are clearly times I give consideration that I could be in an area that has greater potential for a good run. In days gone by I would actually actively wait for these for days and many hours on end for the obvious rewards. Not so much now unless just happen to be at the helm but it’s doable, with the aid of matchsticks for your eyes :grin:

So my current weekly has 2 black boxes yet to be filled, there are more above and below but these will do for now, focus wise. I think this kind of visual helps to consider value areas. So for example to fill the top black box, value is in the area we are in now and also the bottom of the lower black box, now of course because this is weekly it’s a wide area but as you drill down and apply the same logic, you can dial it in to smaller tolerances. Likewise to target the lower black box value is at the top of the red box and the top of the upper black box. If the larger value areas are missed, step down to daily, then hourly etc, this kind of approach should always keep you at the extremes of value in line with your time horizon. So looking for example for short opportunities on an hourly time frame when you are potentially in a value area for longs on a weekly basis, may not be the smartest idea unless you are very nimble.

This is not telling my trader buddies here anything new but could possibly help some interested onlookers who wonder what all this crazy voodoo is all about !!:exploding_head:

I made a yearly chart (30 years) which some may find interesting and also loosely added some trend lines for those that like them to a quarterly chart going back to 1975.

All this while keeping an eye on the roast lamb !! :stuck_out_tongue:


#147

WANT TO BECOME A PROFITABLE TRADER – STU GUY TO LISTEN TO!:muscle::+1:


#148

Here’s what I’m looking at at the moment. The COT report shows the commercials increased their short positions this week. Past week bearish, past Friday bullish. We still have a beautiful H&S formation.

I’m thinking the next big mover of EU is the midterm elections on Nov 6th. I believe the republicans make substantial gains in both chambers, thereby solidifying Trumps power to implement his agenda. I think the commercials will use this week to push up the EU – pulling more retailers in with long positions. The descending wedge indicates it could rise 150 or so pips this week.

The short trend line #3 broken Friday. Overall bearish but neutral to bullish for the week. We C.


#149

Nice insight Stu,
I hadn’t really considered monitoring movements from range to range.
Since adopting golden ratios and separately harmonic patterns to identify projections I haven’t looked any further.
I will certainly now be mindful of these range areas :+1:


#150


#151

Sometimes, they don’t work out. Medium risk.


#152

Only just revising my watch list and noticed I hadn’t come back to this post. The area hit the next day but I was on G/dad duty and not around to dial anything in. Provided nice little swing on the hourly, was anyone on board ?

Scratched the EG level as it rose but it’s there for the future maybe.


#153

Don’t worry mate, I dropped a shed-load last Thursday < /patronising >


#154

Today’s winning trade, much needed confidence boost.
Actually there were two winners although only one shown here…


#155

It happens – next!! :wink:


#156

But most times they do! :relaxed:


#157

I think, in the business of scalping, one must establish the maximum risk you are willing to take in a single trade. I have a maximum % I am willing to lose in any given trade. I rarely let one reach that level. IMO one has reached a major milestone, when on occasion of taking a maximum hit, you simply shrug it off as a normal business loss and look for the next opportunity. Stu iterated that fact to me a couple years ago. I found it to be the turning point. Next!


#158


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#160


#161

This is a GN trade in motion, making use of the principle I tried to illustrate above. I’ve taken some loot off the table and now leave the remainder. I’m not saying it will reach target, I have no idea but it entered into an area I consider good value for a LONG prospect. Obviously it can still crash through the floor and might very well do that but being fussy about entry location gives it the best possible chance of survival.

GBP/NZD Weekly