FX and Commodity Charts & Ideas


#162

It is looking as though the major down-trend on EU is about to break


#163

At the very least the hourly break out crew have been shafted but what’s new.


#164

Hi Stu,

Your method is very interesting and your posts were recommended to me by Exy.

In this case, where do you suggest the retrace (when it occurs) will come back to, the red line or the blue line?


#165

4hr??

I don’t think Stu can keep his eyes open that long… :yum:


#166

Lol.

Presumably, after a reasonable period of consolidation on a lower timeperiod, we just set a stop sell with a TP and forget about it. I would expect a retest to the red line before it decides whether it wants to continue upwards or resume the daily trend down.

The only questions are, what are the conditions for entry and where to place the stop.


#167

Wow 10 mins as member and straight into it. No handshake ? :grin::grin:

Firstly mate I very rarely even view a 4hr chart and nothing to do with sleeping habits. Depending on time zones they obviously print differently. The hourly looks the same the world over.

In answer to your question I have no idea. It depends on your expectations. I tend not to actually try and predict where a bounce will occur as such. So for example it can very well bounce near both levels you highlight, the key is if you suspect for example your upper level then it’s not just a case of diving in at that level and hoping for the best.

Perhaps you can share some history about your trading and then I will know better if I can contribute anything of use or maybe others here may chip in if I can’t help.


#168

Sorry mate. I didn’t realised I breached etiquette. Nice to meet you all, been lurking here and reading a bit and your post above was interesting.

Background, i’ve been trying this for about 10 years and i’m a very solid breakeven trader, but pretty disillusioned about it. I tried a bit of quant trading to teach myself that indicators don’t really work, but also discovered that I wouldn’t really want to leave my money to a computer to trade.

I’ve had a few mentors, I was at the James16 group before it folded, I was with a nice NZ lady for a bit, but struggled to believe in her indicator heavy systems and now i’m with Chris Capre. There is a lot to learn and read in the markets and the more I learn the more I realise that eventually you need to teach yourself and figure out your own system.

This might not answer your questions, but when you wrote that, it resonated with me and I could instantly spot it on a chart. An impulsive drive is fairly easy to spot so that is part of a trade. However, if I think aloud for a second, what is missing here is a connection to the overall market structure and how that would influence this particular trade (although, since we have a nice N-wave downtrend on the daily, there is every reason to believe the that trade will turn around and try to resume the trend).

My number one error is getting stopped out in spite of reading the market correctly. Infuriating sometimes.


#169

Joking about etiquette mate, don’t care, you front seat now to witness loser or winner, be back later.


#170

Good luck.

Ok, here is an example of a trade, we have a been in a downwards trend in the 1min and 5min, but in an uptrend on the 4 hours with lots of volatility on the daily. Since we have just broken north of the consolidation on the 1 minute it is reasonable to predict that it will hit my TP. Problems are: Is this a false break? Where do I put my stop?

Edit: Shot up and I won in a matter of minutes.

Edit2: At the risk of looking like I am copying you, I am also in on the AudUsd. Entry was a stop sell at 0.7194 based on the 1 minute resistance, SL 0.7209 and TP the red line.


#171

My 2c, if you are in and long your TP needs to come back to 1.30945


#172

No, TP was hit on UsdCad and i’m short on AudUsd with Stu. Based on the 4 hour impulsive move, but sold on the break of the resistance, here:


#173

Taken the loot at .7188


#174

Try and think about what concerns you ? You say false break.

So if false break is the concern why would you choose to enter at a location that has the potential to immediately bounce back at you ? I will only ever hunt the blue circles if I’m looking long, that is where I consider to have the least risk. As the elastic stretches how can you know it’s point of failure ?
Of course this all dependent on expectations and time horizons.
So to be clear for me, even having an idea that I might be in the location for a daily/weekly swing I will never trade a break of any level. I would rather miss the trade or wait for the opportunity of another blue circle.

I know plenty of people do trade the break but it’s not for me personally. I consider you have potentially added the risk of the prior swing to your trade.


#175

You say you have been with xxxx and are now with xxxxx. I presume this is costing you dough ? If you are parting with cash have you seen audited trading record ? Not many of the gurus ever show it as far as I’m aware. Anyway you don’t need to answer, if you are and xxx hasn’t proven with audited records cancel payment and do yourself a favour.

It seems you need to really steady the ship and consider taking a look at yourself before you go any further. I only stick to the way I trade. You need to consider what really suits you ? How much time you can devote ? What are your expectations ? A living ? An annual holiday ? I believe you have my blurb from old threads if that suits you I can discuss but I can’t pass comment on questions like you have asked as the way you are viewing things right now is alien to me. This isn’t being disparaging of what you know or how you view things but I can’t blend this stuff. My thinking is what it is in the blurb.


#176

This might help to show why the turn happened at your blue elipses ! (5 min chart)

In fact two missed trades, as these are two more examples of the f*ckers I spoke about last week when I said if only I was in front of the screen when they occured :joy:


#177

I notice you didn’t ask why I thought you should ease your TP by half a pip.


#178

Yeah dig out the old ones, got lots of them but look to your most recent first and
hierarchical, is normally a safe bet.
Take a look at this monthly chart.


#179

Yep love the precision,
I had not made that connection. I will prioritize my levels tomorrow as I am going to try not to trade being Friday, just analyse charts :+1:


#180

Thanks mate.

Payment for these things was one off. I have only seen trade results from one, him and another were clearly winning. How can I tell, well, just like you were able to call winning trades in realtime, but also because they also criticised my trades and they were often right and it went wrong exactly the way they predicted.


#181

Fair enough SM but there is obviously something lacking with their blurb that brings you here. Did they call the losers in real time too, as they are equally as important ?

Did you get out of the A/U trade ? Can discuss if you want ? You see when and where I got out.