North Korea: What do we do next?


#1

On the news tonight was a rather trenchant analysis, as regarding North Korea, and how to deal with it.

To paraphrase:

We are currently applying some pressure to China (North Korea’s benefactor), in the hope that they will, in turn, apply pressure to North Korea; and that this will result in North Korea’s ending its nuclear program.

But that is Plan A.

One would very much hope that it works.

But what if it does [I]not[/I] work?

Then we must go to Plan B.

But what, exactly, [I]is[/I] Plan B?

Is it (1) to do nothing–as successive administrations (both Democratic and Republican) have done for many years now?

Or is it (2) to strike North Korea, pre-emptively?

Those are really the only two remaining options.

And neither is very palatable.

If we do nothing, North Korea will surely have a nuclear bomb–and have it miniaturized, and be able to place it upon a missile–within the next four or five years, anyway. And Kim Jong-un will certainly have no compunction about using it.

On the other hand, it we strike Pyongyang–which is very tempting–we risk the possibility (make that the [B]probability[/B]–the [B]very high[/B] probability) that over 100,000 South Koreans will die, almost instantly, in retaliation.

And many Japanese–also within range of Little Kim’s nukes–probably will also die.

To say that this is an unhappy choice is to engage in grave understatement.

And that is doubtless why every president, so far, has simply ignored the problem.

But it will not be subject to our merely ignoring it for much longer.

So we must now make the very hard choice: Do we prefer Plan B, Option 1, or Plan B, Option 2 (with all of its attendant ramifications)?

Again, it simply cannot be ignored for much longer.


#2

Neither Plan A or Plan B. There’s just not much that can be done about North Korea.

The NK regime is all about self-preservation. They can most likely decimate Seoul within hours should they choose. They have a hostage.

China is happy with the status quo and as we saw with Trump they can play the leverage over North Korea card to gain concessions from the U.S. Russia probably feels the same way.

The South talks a good game about unification but if it came down to it the people there aren’t willing to take the economic hit of absorbing the NK masses. The economic gap between the north and south is a lot greater than that between East and West Germany prior to the German reunification.

I’m less familiar with Japan’s perspective. Perhaps they prefer a nutjob regime and its occasional failed missile launch to a unified Korean peninsula that could pose more of an economic and military threat in the long term.

Our best play is to disengage from the region and let the countries there handle the mess. Japan and South Korea are economic giants with strong military forces. Let them deal with it.

It’s a clusterf*** as far as the eye can see.


#3

I’ll propose an extreme example.

What would happen if we just dropped a MOAB unexpectedly on the fat guy’s palace? Would the world really go that crazy? My opinion is that very little blowback would occur.


#4

Taks a heavy lift aircraft to drop one. Think the NK airfare would allow an AC 130 to do a fly by?


#5

I thoroughly agree. On both counts.

Actually, I think that the leadership in China now finds Kim Jong-un too rabid (and too erratic) for even their tastes.

Still they certainly do not want a Western-style country–or a unified Korea–on their own border.

The problem with that is that it will soon become America’s mess also, once Little Kim is able to place a miniaturized nuclear weapon on a (working) missile. And he is just crazy enough to strike the West Coast of the US–without worrying about the consequences.


#6

It may be about time something was done once and for all about North Korea. Would be a lot more useful than being in the Middle East, but why is nothing done about North Korea? China, North Korea is China’s dog on a leash, Blame the communist Chinese for North Korea and make them handle the problem.


#7

But if China declines to “handle the problem”–and I certainly hope that they do handle it properly–what is our next move?

Remember, Kim Jong-un is likely to soon–very soon–have a miniaturized nuclear warhead, that he can place upon a missile; and I seriously doubt that he will have any restraint about using it against the US.


#8

Blame a certain US president for keeping MacArthur on a leach…


#9

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