The crash is coming


#1

First tax cuts, A bloated spending package. Now an infrastructure package to end all infrastructure packages.

If politics is just a game, then it’s the most boring and pointless game ever there was. If it’s a career, it’s not that great of one. There are easier ways for a bunch of people with law degrees and MBAs and great moral flexibility to earn $173,000 a year. There are high-school principals who make more than that. And having one’s ass kissed by Washington flunkies could not possibly be that pleasurable.

Why do they do it?

To fill the time?

Why bother with going to Washington if not to try to do the needful things?

“The evil that men do lives after them. The good is oft interrèd with their bones.”

So must it be with all our elected politicians all the courtiers and jesters and sycophants.

They will all pass.

But the debt is a memento without death, it is immortal. Like so much else in Washington, it is speeding out of control with no working brakes and no one apparently at the wheel. As Herb Stein famously put it, “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

The crash is coming.


#2

Once again, this is all smoke and mirrors to avoid dealing with the fundamental and underlying problem the continuance of and increases in the American interventionist-welfare state. This is the crux of it all. Neither Democrats nor Republicans want to have to “face the music” and tell their respective voter constituents that given current levels of Federal taxation, the U.S. government does not take in enough in taxes to meet all the existing programs and desired legislative promises that have put all of them into high political office.

Deficit spending and the inescapable rising national debt that accompanies it enables politicians to tell the coalitions of special interest groups that vote on election day that Uncle Sam can give them something for nothing, or if not for nothing, then for less that what all of those government giveaway programs really cost.

And in the end there will never be enough collected in taxes to pay for all the government largess.


#3

Please let me know two days prior to the event So I can prepare.

Any projections about a date?


#4

Do the math.

Think this level of spending and debt with rising interest rates is sustainable?

2/3rds of government spending is mandated by law spending. How much can be cut without a change in law from congress who cannot agree on the time of day?

it is speeding out of control with no working brakes and no one apparently at the wheel.


#5

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that simply keeping today’s programs on autopilot would push federal spending from the long-term average of 20 percent of GDP to nearly 30 percent of GDP over the next 30 years. The main spending-driver the retirement of 74 million baby boomers will raise Social Security and Medicare costs by 4.5 percent of GDP over this period. This is in part because the typical new Medicare retiree will receive $3 in benefits for every $1 paid into the system. Rising health-care costs will add one percent of GDP to Medicaid, and normalizing interest rates will add perhaps three percent of GDP to the cost of servicing the national debt.

Who will pay for this? Surveys show virtually no support — within either party — for reining in Social Security and health programs driving spending upward. Popular calls to cut waste and foreign aid would save little money. Defense spending is already on pace to fall from 4.7 percent of GDP in 2010 to 2.7 percent a decade from now not far above defense-stingy Europe’s two percent target.

But there is always the rich.

If the middle class wants European government benefits, it should prepare to pay for them. Raising taxes on the rich simply won’t cover the costs.


#6

The recent downturn in all the markets is just the beginning of the inevitable and unavoidable stock market collapse that I predict will occur sometime from June to the end of this year. The recent global market declines even saw gold go down with it. Expect even more of this atypical discordance as to how all the markets react to one another because when the crash happens everything will turn to shit other what I mention below. When the crash happens the best you can do is preserve your wealth. Making over 5% returns in almost all investment vehicles will simply be impossible. This is where one now profits from their years, or even decades of preparations, and tightens the belt for the long cold economic winter ahead.

My own financial moves are to, as the dollar hits recent lows, get into dollars on these lows. When the crash occurs all currencies will be dogshit, but the US dollar will be the king of the dogshit and everyone will want some of it. Even in times of trouble and all currency being dogshit, one must still have and use a currency. Everyone will feel this way about the US dollar. The dollar has fallen lately and this is good as it is my buying opportunity. The more it goes down before the crash…the better is the opportunity to get into dollars. No matter your opinions or musings regarding the manipulated US fiat dollar, this is where the dollar will stand in the future…like it or not.

I expect interest rates to be raised and raised again, and again, and even…again.

My next suggestion is to get into US Treasuries and zero coupon bonds once they hit 3% yield. They have, with the recent market decline, risen to 2.85%. The highest in four years. Almost there and ready to buy when at 3%.

Excellent news that Lloyd’s Banking Group has banned customers from buying Bitcoin with credit cards. This has sent Bitcoin down to a sub-8K low and is dropping. I consider this an excellent time for me to begin buying Bitcoin on its way down. Bitcoin will soar once the stock market crashes into new historic highs into the 30K range. I consider this to be a one-time investment in Bitcoin unlike any other as after this stock market crash and meteoric rise of BTC happens the bankers and regulators will likely step in and ruin crypto with new regulations. Before that happens I will take my profits from Bitcoin and convert most of it into cash.

The only advice regarding the stock market is to short the market and prepare for it to crumble. The gold price will drop with the stock market crash as the derivative debt used to prop up the gold price will no longer be able do so. Oil will begin to drop to $20 a barrel and possibly even touch $15 or $10. That is right, I said it, possibly even $10 a barrel into the future. America is soon to become the world’s largest oil producer. Canada, Russia and Norway will also be producing big.

Are you ready for a stock market crash that will take decades to recover from? Are you living outside the dense population centers and prepped with supplies and armed with a survival strategy for the upcoming recession-depression? How are the hoards of street urchins going to react to this? Are you ready for all the debt bubbles to burst all at once and the price of your residential real estate to fall another 30-50% in value? Are you ready to be shredded to fucking pieces by Trump’s Goldman Sachs financial advisors that knew all along that this was coming and never declared a financial state of emergency on his first day in office like he should have?

It has been talked and speculated about forever. But this year the time has come. It should have happened in 2008, but…the bailouts. But now that same margin/derivative problem is 3-4 times worse that it was ten years ago. This time there will be no stop-gaps, no relief, no refuge, no parachutes, no bail outs…absolutely nothing is in place or existent to stop or save this market from crashing.

Trump and his Goldman Sachs economic hit team are poised to save their wealth, but also profit handsomely after the crash buying defaulted upon assets. This may be the real reason he became president at this time, and did collude with Russians regarding the lifting of sanctions, to win the election.

Prepare yourself. Following this will come the run-up to WWIII with China by the year 2025. The poverty explosion will be the perfect tool to convince the population to support war as that is where the jobs and big business, in a climate where there is none in the civilian-private sector, will be concentrated. It will be interesting to see how the media will begin to speak of this and manipulate toward this agenda. It almost always involves with creating a “Hitler” character onto which to focus upon. Someone who “gasses” his own people and is a serious violator of human rights. Look for this spectre cult of personality to begin to foment and be presented to the masses as to why China must be defeated and liberated for the sake of bringing them western democracy and the human rights that go along with it.


#7

All this would make sense Sven if Jeb or her highness was in charge. But we have a paradigm that occurred over a year ago, anybody notice?

Trump is a builder. Builders first sell the job, then, and only then, when the ink is dry, they buy the job. Study up on that, and get back to me with some updated crystal ball nonsense.


#8

I’m certain there will be several corrections in the next two years because of out of control spending by both parties . It seem when it comes to spending we have only one party these days ! How the hell the republicans allowed this budget to pass is mind-boggling to say the very least ! :roll_eyes:


#9

Thank you for such a thorough analysis but I think the point you are missing is that President Trump’s entire Goldman Sachs cabinet won’t allow any of this to happen. A market collapse might benefit them personally, but it would also hurt many of their friends whose businesses wouldn’t be able to sell products to a cash strapped consumer. They care more about consumerism long term than they do short term gains from a collapsed market.


#10

Let me predict this.

There will be a correction.

Wait, is it a prediction when it always happens???


#11

Will they prevent the Federal Reserve from raising rates 3 times in the coming year forcing the economy to cool with a retraction in the market???


#12

That depends on what Trump’s appointed Fed chair decides to do…doesn’t it.


#13

The out of control spending is one factor and the Federal Reserve and rate increases another.


#14

The national debt doesn’t seem real to most people. It’s just numbers somewhere in the ether. Even people who consistently oppose reckless deficit spending tend to treat it abstractly. The second is that both parties are thoroughly guilty of contributing to the problem, so partisans have a strong incentive to be indulgent on the subject.


#15

Don’t tell anyone but the Chair is but one vote.


#16

And when interest rates rise , as they surely will , the market will react big time !


#17

Well the TIC came to us to make America great again. So no worries, not on his watch.


#18

Not possible to occur between June and December of 2018. Trump came to MAGA!


#19

Right, MAGA…


#20

Right, let’s get an early start at backing things up for Trump so as to have deniability. Every ounce of the credit for the Dow’s clime during the TIC’s first year you guys demanded was his, but he will be acquitted of any and all responsibility for any and all decline or worse of our economy now. It all gets so predictable.