That’s a really sad story. The North Korean regime has always been a problem. After the Korean War they just weren’t “our problem” so much. Now things have changed and we need to realistically look at North Korea from a problem/solution perspective. As far as I am aware, Kim lacks an army of faithfully obedient robots and is dependent upon an internal hierarchy whose loyalty is motivated just as much by survival as Kim is. To me that means they can be negotiated with.
You are right. That’s also why it’s entirely possible for a coup to happen under those circumstances; moreover, it’s entirely possible that a country like China (NK’s most significant trading partner and a recipient of a lot of movement from NK citizens - as seen in the video) would plan for a contingency that takes advantage of that.
The reason why the Kim regime has existed for as long as it has despite foreign intervention endlessly existing in its politics is because the Kim’s and their advisers are very close knit and smart, purges are very frequent and generals are purged normally. The army is more obedient to Kim than to any generals, though information from within North Korea is very small, there is a large list of people purged every year and generals recycled so that none are worshiped more than Kim.
I do agree that foreign intervention from an ally such as China would generate a coup that could be successful, due to China’s resources, knowledge and overall influence in NK politics.
I think the people are radically overstating the favor that NK has with China.
I think that relations between China and NK have been dismal for quite some time now; I might even believe that China had a hand in what was believed to be a previous coup attempt.
I also think that it is that factor which has motivated North Korea’s current seemingly ‘erratic’ actions on the world stage.
China and NK relations have deteriorated but my point still stands that out of any superpower, China has a large knowledge of NK politics and the system in NK overall, as well as vast resources to counter NK.
I’d honestly love if a coup happened in NK
I 100% agree with you on that.
China is the only power with the capacity to do it
The problem is who takes the mantel after the coup
Which is the reason why North Korea is acting the way it is.
One action that I found quite illuminating, that people forget, was that Kim assassinated his own half-brother who was under Chinese protection.
China would never willingly let an asset like that go and the only reason Kim would have to order that assassination would be out of fear for possible regime change.
Honestly even though I had wide dislike of China as a nation in terms of its antics and was happy when Trump denounced them endlessly during the election, this role hes taken of backhanded complimenting them while attempting to create a connection is most likely not the way to go in terms of increasing relations but attempting to reaffirm yourself as the bigger power on the world stage while engaging in discussion.
China has much more important things to concern itself with than either Trump or North Korea.
I’d imagine Trump would actually be high on their list - considering disputes in the South China Sea.
It stretches far beyond that.
China is waist deep in what is essentially the largest international infrastructure program since the Marshall Plan
It’s going to perhaps the better part of two decades to see to completion and it comes packed with a lot of negotiations, conflicts, and little dilemmas that need a lot of attention.
Of course it does, but the fact that Trump is attempting to move the foreign affairs argument eastward like HRC attempted in 2012 shows an annoyance that only grows for China and its endlessly flexing within other territories.
While China is happy to steal America’s position in terms of ‘combating’ climate change, I would advise you to be cautious as to Trump’s actual regard with Xi.
America is likely very far down China’s list of concerns at the moment.
Which is a good thing, in my opinion.
Thus, it helps that Trump abandoned the TPP which would have probably been the main cause of conflict in the short-term.
I would imagine they’re not, at least foreign policy wise, China has been disliking US intervention into its politics for a long time and with its domestic policy and foreign policy aligning and the focus on the Middle East that existed for most of the Obama admin and the Bush admin is definitely changing to address China’s growing intention to overtake the US in terms of being the worlds biggest superpower. It’s not going to stay down for a while.
China isn’t worried about being ringfenced anymore.
China is ringfencing other countries these days, in fact.
Yeah…hence the infrastructure program.
The ‘One Belt, One Road’ endeavor is pretty genius. If it comes together at least.
The Chinese do have the kind of money to make it work, as far as it seems - quite a ingenious display of soft power and to get countries on their side.