Mass psychosis has gripped a significant fraction of the progressive regressive elites in the wake of their shock at the election and presidency of Donald Trump. The open embrace by California and some other jurisdictions of nullification – the doctrine that states can ignore or obstruct federal law – is recapitulating the run-up to our 19th-century Civil War. Serious publications are taking seriously the possibility of an actual armed conflict.
The notion some on the left have that they would gain from such a conflict is insane on every level. It would be a catastrophe of world historical dimensions, unleashing every bad actor in the world to enact its dream aggressions: China attacking Taiwan, Iran attacking Israel, and Russia restoring the old USSR borders, for starters.
But how about the question of who would win? Kurt Schlichter on Town Hall takes a cold, hard look at the question and concludes (correctly) that the blue-staters would get their posteriors handed to them. His article, titled “Why Democrats Would Lose the Second Civil War, Too,” is must-reading, albeit unpleasant to contemplate. I think he is highly realistic:
Do I think there will be a civil war? No, but there could be. This is the Age of Black Swans, and anything is possible – we could easily see the country split into red and blue. Civil war is unlikely, but never underestimate Democrat stupidity and hatred.
If you can read Schlichter’s article with the same amused frame of mind you might take while playing a violent videogame, there are a lot of payoffs in it. The Dems have no clue how stupid they are.
There are two Civil War II scenarios, and the left is poorly positioned to prevail in either one. The first scenario is that the Democrats take power and violate the Constitution in order to use the apparatus of the federal government to suppress and oppress Normal Americans. In that scenario, red Americans are the insurgents. In the second scenario, which we can even now see the stirrings of in California’s campaign to nullify federal immigration law, it is the blue states that are the insurgents.
The Democrats lose both wars. Big time.
Let’s talk terrain and numbers. Remember the famous red v. blue voting map? There is a lot of red, and in the interior the few blue splotches are all cities like Las Vegas or Denver. That is a lot of territory for a counter-insurgent force to control, and this is critical. The red is where the food is grown, the oil pumped, and through which everything is transported. And that red space is filled with millions of American citizens with small arms, a fairly large percentage of whom have military training.
Remember what two untrained idiots did in Boston with a couple of pistols? They shut a city down. Now multiply that by several million, with better weapons and training.
He does not ignore the fact that Dems are the party of disarmed civilians, and consider how law enforcement, the military, and the National Guard might handle the conflicting calls that would be made on their loyalties.
This article really should be read by progs. But it won’t be. They like living in their fantasy world, where human nature can be changed, tax hikes increase prosperity, and racial agitation is the means to produce a just society.